Last season’s Western Conference semifinal match saw the Loons fall to an absolute powerhouse San Diego side, one that clinched the regular-season conference title and had one of the best expansion seasons in league history. It was a picture-perfect underdog story for the newbies; nobody expected such success from the debuts, but boy, did they set the bar high.
This season, though, San Diego has struggled to live up to their own hype, earning a fair amount of speculation about a sophomore slump. Let’s break down the discrepancy between this club’s 2025 and 2026 runs.
A Dramatic Entrance
Let’s start with the stats, because San Diego’s 2025 numbers truly speak for themselves. By the end of the regular season, Mikey Varas’ side had tallied a conference-leading 63 points (1.85 ppg) and a record of 19-9-6 (W-L-D). With 64 goals scored and a goal differential of +23, it was pretty much a given that they’d destroy Portland in the Round One Best-of-Three series in their initial postseason run. They proceeded to knock Minnesota out in the conference semis 1-0 before falling to a truly threatening Vancouver side 1-3. That’s pretty insane for a brand-new club with an untested coach leading a host of young players.
As far as expansion sides go, San Diego is rivaled only by the 1998 Chicago Fire, who won both the U.S. Open Cup and MLS Cup, but also played in the shootout era and in a league with only 12 total teams. The only real modern-era comparison is St. Louis CITY SC’s 2023 expansion season when they also won the West, but they did so with 56 points and lost to Sporting Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs. Suffice it to say that San Diego made a splash like no other — superstar Anders Dreyer would’ve been a shoo-in for MVP if he didn’t play in the same league as Lionel Messi, Varas impressed across the board, and everybody knew who the Chrome and Azul were by the end of their pilot season.
If you really want to deep dive into San Diego’s success, I wrote about it last year, but now it’s time to catch up to the present: How did San Diego fall so far so fast?
The Drop
San Diego started 2026 on the right foot. They were navigating some tough schedule congestion with the addition of their Concacaf Champions Cup berth — beating Pumas and logging a win against Toluca before being eliminated — and still managed to go undefeated in five in regular-season play. They were playing the same dominant, high-possession soccer that netted so many results for them in 2025.
It wasn’t until early March that the red flags started popping up. Or, well, red cards. San Diego was still winning, but logged a stunning four red cards in the month of March: three in two games against Toluca, and another in their draw against RSL.
Then April hit, and things went drastically downhill. The first strike on their record was a 3-0 loss to San Jose, but San Jose has proved themselves a threat to any squad this season. That could be forgiven, but then San Diego lost to the Loons. And Real Salt Lake. And Houston, and Portland, and . . . you get the picture. Throw in three more red cards in under a month, and you’ve got some major trouble brewing.
The Chrome and Azul lost five of five games in April (conceding 12 goals in that stretch alone) and drew their first two in May, making for a seven-match winless streak before their comeback against Austin.
Since then San Diego has been hit or miss, leading to an underwhelming record that has them sitting at 12th in the West with just 20 points in 17 games. They’ve only won a single match on the road all season. With an overall record of 5-7-5, Varas’ side is struggling to make their mark and live up to the lofty expectation they set for themselves last year.
Why is that?
Breaking It Down
For one, San Diego no longer has the element of surprise, the benefit of an untested roster to come out of nowhere and blow the socks off their underestimating enemies. There’s something to be said for teams across the board having a fantastic season and then falling off the next year (looking at you, Philadelphia), but that doesn’t feel like a substantial enough reason for this team’s collapse.
Critics point to the issue of Hirving “Chucky” Lozano, the famed Mexican winger who has yet to see a single minute of playing time in 2026. Varas has made it clear that Lozano’s not part of the plan for San Diego. I don’t think their performance as a club is just a “we benched Chucky Lozano” problem. San Diego was doing great even navigating schedule congestion early in the season without him. However, Lozano is taking up a DP slot, plus a lot of salary, that SDFC then can’t use on other heavy hitters to turn the team around. Plus, Lozano is one of those guys that makes the headlines even when he’s not there, and there’s something to be said for the weight his name carries. His role — or lack thereof — in Varas’ squad is still tangible.
Starting keeper CJ Dos Santos also suffered a fractured cheekbone in San Diego’s playoff round against Portland, putting him out for nearly six months before coming back to play in May. A nose injury then put him out again through the break. Keeper Duran Ferree manned the net in his absence, allowing 19 goals against in the span of 13 games. Dos Santos is now back in action, but did concede the all-important single goal by Colorado in the club’s first game back after the break. So far, he’s logged two saves in as many games back.
As far as actual roster changes go, defender Paddy McNair was transferred to EFL side Hull City in January, and his absence has been felt on the back line. Midfielder Luca De La Torre’s option was declined. Outside of that, the squad hasn’t really lost any firepower between 2025 and 2026. Anders Dreyer, responsible for a whopping 19 goals in the club’s 2025 campaign (plus four in playoffs), has scored just six goals this season, but he’s not having a bad year — he’s still second in the entire league in assists with nine, only behind LAFC’s Son Heung-Min.
San Diego’s approach hasn’t changed. They still play high-possession soccer. They’re just not doing as much with that possession, struggling to find a consistent way to break lines and convert. The team is fumbling in the box, conceding when it matters, and struggling with speed up the flanks.
This World Cup break may have been good for them. San Diego lost to Colorado in their first game back, but then they managed to pull one over on Dallas. It remains to be seen whether they can really turn this around, but the club has also been active this transfer window. They’ve recently signed defender Tunisia international team winger Elias Achouri (DP) and goalkeeper Marcus Alstrup, both from the Danish Superliga, where Dreyer also played before his stint in the Belgian Pro League. Add in new defender Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, and you’ve got three notable acquisitions that have the potential to reignite the lackluster aspects of San Diego’s current play. They’ve also acquired goalkeeper Marcus Alstrup from Danish Superliga.
The fact is, Minnesota United can’t entirely know what kind of team they’ll be facing this weekend, especially taking into consideration an upcoming swath of schedule congestion as both teams contend with Leagues Cup. This Saturday’s matchup is a bit of a wildcard: San Diego has a chance to set the tone for their great comeback, or Minnesota could play spoiler and double down on Varas’ side. Let’s all root for the latter.
