I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but summer is over, folks. Sure, the calendar might say otherwise for a little while longer, but you know it as well as I. That cool breeze and those cold nights? That earlier sunset? All of these signs point to the coming of something both ancient and new: a season that teams across the league have feared, celebrated, and fretted over for three decades now: Clinching Season. Time to separate the wheat from the chaff, the contenders from the pretenders, and the clinched from the pinched.

Teams at either end of the postseason spectrum are beginning to learn their fates, with an early bird already confirmed at either end. This week’s Storylines will serve as your playoff-chase preview, including clinching scenarios, elimination scenarios, and perhaps even a dash of predictions from yours truly. It’s been too long since I subjected you to my mostly educated premonitions; it feels like you’re due a fresh dose.

You’re In!

So far, just one team has secured their spot in the postseason: San Diego. With your Loons just three points behind the Western Conference leaders, this weekend could see them join their rivals as the lone pair of western teams to secure their places. If Minnesota United wins against Portland this weekend, the deed is done; no need for extra results. If they draw, they’ll need SKC to either draw or beat Colorado, or Austin to beat San Jose. If the Loons lose to Portland, the dominoes stack up a bit, as they’d need Houston to lose or draw, Colorado to lose to SKC, and San Jose to draw Austin.

Yes, it could get confusing. But that’s the beauty of clinching season: complete and utter chaos! YES!

No one has nailed a spot down yet in the Eastern Conference, but both Philadelphia and Cincinnati have a chance to do so this weekend. Funnily enough, they’re playing one another, meaning only one can come out of the weekend with that spot secured. Oh, the drama! Whoever wins that match will need the Red Bulls to drop points against Columbus, meaning that even if they win, nothing is guaranteed. Stinks to be in the east, I guess.

There’s Always Next Year

At the far less exciting end of the standings, teams are lining up at the chopping block. D.C. United are the only club to have already thrown in the towel, tallying just 21 points from 28 games and falling 18 points behind NYRB in the last playoff spot. But they might not be alone for long!

Fellow Eastern Conference clubs seem eager to join the Black and Red, with Montréal, Atlanta, and Toronto all just a couple results away from elimination. If each of those teams loses and the Red Bulls beat Columbus, all three will be out of contention. Though they can’t clinch anything either way, the NYRB vs. Columbus match might actually have the biggest playoff implications of any match this weekend, so track that one at the very least.

Montréal sits in the most precarious position of the three bubble teams, with their own loss OR an NYRB win eliminating them. For those who might enjoy the closest thing our league has to a relegation battle, tune in to watch Toronto take on Montréal in this Canadian clash for the ages, as they both look to extend their mathematical playoff hopes a little longer.

Predictions, Please?

Well, since you asked so nicely, of course I’ll give you my predictions! I’ll keep this brief, with just a few explanations around the teams on either side of the cutoff. First, let’s look to the east, in no particular order:

In the east, the only remaining question mark in my mind is between the Fire and the Red Bulls. They’re tied on 39 points, and both have reasonably difficult schedules to close out the season. Based on recent results — and the fact that the Fire are, in my eyes, a better team — I went with Triple G and the boys. Now, as our ancestors once did, let’s travel west:

There’s a little cluster here that’s hard to place. Austin and San Jose play each other twice before the end of the year, so whoever gets the upper hand there probably plays themselves into a playoff spot — or at least a Wildcard spot. Dallas is finishing the season with what feels like slightly better form than the rest of the pack, and I just have a good feeling about Los Toros. Portland, on the other hand, have to play each of the west’s top four teams before the season ends, and while I don’t think that’ll prove catastrophic for them, it’s not going to make qualification any easier.

There you have it: your all-but-confirmed playoff field for the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs. Screenshot it, post it on your bulletin board, and look at it every single day. I can’t advise placing wagers, but you know what I’d say if I could. The pieces are all going to start falling into place soon, so stay tuned into more than just the next Loons match; there’s plenty more to see!