259 days, 33 games, a World Cup, and so much more. A rotating carousel of faces and names, opponents beaten and bruises suffered, and more than a few moments worth getting out of your seat for. The 2026 MLS regular season is coming to its inevitable close this weekend at Allianz Field, and while hope for a postseason berth remains, seasons of change are on the horizon. Will the Loons end this era with a win to give themselves a chance to keep playing? The Earthquakes certainly hope not, but if form and fate are worth anything, I’d say they’ve got more than a fighting chance in this massive Decision Day matchup. 

Minnesota United (10-12-11)

Run of Form: W-W-D-W-D

There must be something in the water around here, because MNUFC teams have been crushing it at the end of the regular season lately. Following MNUFC2’s lead, the Loons have put together a six-game unbeaten run at the tail-end of 2026, and they’ll be looking to make that seven at the weekend. Draws against playoff-bound Houston, paired with a huge comeback win over red-hot St. Louis and a similar comeback over SKC have shown that the Loons can handle just about anything that gets thrown at them right now, a point further emphasized by their resounding 3-1 win over a very talented LAFC team last time out.

San Jose Earthquakes (14-9-10)

Run of Form: W-D-L-D-D

For the Quakes, the end of 2026 has been a bit of a mixed bag. They lost to a very good Dallas side for the second time this season, beat and drew an RSL team that’s struggling to make the postseason cutoff, and drew against Supporters’ Shield winners Nashville. A frustrating draw against Colorado rounds out the last five, leaving the visitors in questionable form at best, with a clear ability to turn it on against the league’s best. 

Keys to the Match:

Not Where They are, but What They Do

I’ve harped on and on about Head Coach Cameron Knowles’ decision to put his side into a 4-4-2 formation lately, and every week, I like it more. While it was likely the breakout of Marcus Caldeira and prolific scoring of Kelvin Yeboah that initially sparked the idea, Knowles has run with it and gone an entirely different direction, and it’s paying dividends in both results and style of play. When AZ Jackson paired with Yeboah up front against St. Louis and Houston, the idea of having a pseudo-false nine, number 10 playing higher up the pitch came into view, and the reintroduction of Joaquín Pereyra from injury allowed the Argentine to slide into the role that Jackson carved out, seamlessly taking the tactical change to another level and giving number 26 the freedom to occupy the spaces he naturally wanted to. Wide options Mauricio González and Tomás Chancalay give the Loons quality on either side, while the fantastic introduction of right back Cherrion Valerius gives the side the same flexibility they had with wingbacks while also reinforcing the backline. The pieces of this formation aren’t necessarily operating in the ways you’d traditionally expect, and that extra creativity in instruction and placement is what’s making them so effective down the home stretch. Keep an eye on the home side’s shape this weekend, and watch as San Jose struggles to keep tabs on Pereyra’s movement, and the vastly different approaches that the Loons are able to take on the right and left sides of the field. 

Tale of Three Seasons

In a regular year, the 34-game MLS regular season is long. Throw in a World Cup Break, and long only gets longer, so let me give you a quick recap of San Jose’s journey this season. The best way to do that? Chunks of 11 games at a time, which coincidentally coincide with some pretty seismic changes for Bruce Arena’s team and point to some pretty telling trends. In their first 11 games, the Quakes earned 28 points, becoming the first team in MLS history to win nine of their first 10 games in a season. Their 4-2-3-1 formation fit their personnel perfectly, and if it weren’t for an injury to centerpiece Niko Tsakiris at the number 10 spot, they may very well have kept rolling. But, going into their second set of 11 games, the Quakes were Tsakiris-less while the midfielder recovered from surgery, and the results were telling. Seven total points in 11 games saw the Quakes plummet from their rate of 2.55 ppg to just 0.64 ppg, and they sank like a rock in the standings. Post-World Cup, they began to look for solutions, and the addition of Eduard Löwen from St. Louis gave them more options as Tsakiris began to make his return. They found their way to a happy middle ground in their final 11 games, earning 18 points for an average of 1.64 ppg. Essentially, San Jose have had three distinct periods: a winning start centered around Tsakiris, a lackluster streak of losses in his absence, and a draw-heavy span during his reintegration and the implementation of new formations and personnel. Bottom line? A fully fit Tsakiris is what makes this club tick, and while his return has improved things, their current 5-3-2 setup hasn’t recaptured the magic that made them so dominant in the early stages of the season. If there’s ever been a good time to play this Quakes side (other than the 11 game stretch in the middle of the season), it’s now, and considering the effectiveness of MNUFC’s current 4-4-2 setup, it feels like the Loons are in for some success on Saturday. 

Third Time’s the Rubber Match

Now, this key is less soccer-y, but it feels necessar-y, if you catch my drift. This will be the third meeting between these clubs across all competitions this season, and since each side has won once, that makes it one of my favorite things: a rubber match. And what better time to settle a score than Decision Day? Form and motivation lean in MNUFC’s favor, but after putting together one of their best seasons in recent memory, the Quakes will not want to go out with a whimper. Anything less than a win for the Loons means their season is certainly over (though a win won’t guarantee a spot in the playoffs without some help elsewhere), while San Jose is playing for positioning at this point. The visitors could finish as high as second in the conference with a win, and as low as fifth with a loss. Add these extra incentives to a matchup that’s already produced 13 goals in two previous meetings, and you’re looking at an end-to-end match with the makings of an MLS classic written all over it. Who gets the rubber? Who wins the tiebreaker? Who goes forward with bragging rights and playoff fights? I DON’T KNOW YET, YOU GOTTA WATCH.