It’s the last match of September, and it’s not on the 21st, so unfortunately I can’t make a funny Earth, Wind & Fire reference. Maybe that’s appropriate, because this game really is no joke — the Loons are flying out to Seattle, and both squads on the pitch this weekend have some serious winless streaks to dispel at a critical time in the season. Add in the backstory of last season’s playoff round, and you’ve got a pretty high-emotion fixture in the works.

Run of Form

Minnesota United FC (7-11-8)
Run of Form: L-L-L-L-D

This isn’t the run of form anyone wants to see, but we’ve got eight games to turn it around, and Seattle seems like a good place to start. Despite scoring 12 goals in their last five matches, the Loons haven’t walked away with three points since their rout in San Jose. Twenty-nine points puts them in 14th in the West, though they’re tied with Real Salt Lake and Seattle and only three points below the play-in line. It’s been rough, but the West is crowded on the bottom half of the table.

Seattle Sounders (7-9-8)
Run of Form: D-D-D-D-D

I mean, consistency is key. Seattle is on a 13-game winless streak in the regular season. Much like the Loons, their last home victory was a Leagues Cup match. For a pair of teams that finished fourth and fifth in the West last season, it’s been a steep fall. At the time of writing, the Sounders are 13th in the West, tied at 29 points with the Loons. They do have a double-game week in store, though — they’ll take on Salt Lake on Wednesday, another big chance to impact the lower standings.

Keys to the Match:

Defensive Drought

The Loons developed an identity as the strongest defensive unit in the league last season, and that carried into a good part of 2026 as well. However, as the scoring spree started up, the defensive quality went downhill, and it seems the Black and Blue haven’t yet mastered the art of balance. Minnesota’s dynamic wingbacks have a tendency to push forward, which is a great dynamic contribution to the formation, but when the center backs follow suit, things get messy. The Loons often don’t get enough numbers back in time to fend off a counter, and the back line’s recent miscommunications have resulted in open spaces that have allowed far too many goals. An inconsistent back three also hasn’t helped, with Michael Boxall out last game, Duggan coming off partway through the LA match with an injury, and now international duty taking Carlos Harvey out of the mix. Nicolás Romero and Jefferson Diaz will need to be in top form this weekend.

Hello and Goodbye

Seattle made two notable incoming moves during the transfer window, both of whom scored in the Sounders’ last match. Midfielder Caden Clark bounced from Montréal to D.C. United after his stint in Minnesota, and now he’s made his debut with the Sounders, scoring the crucial stoppage-time goal to tie it up against the Rapids last weekend. But Seattle’s inarguable biggest move of the window was signing Dejan Joveljić from Sporting Kansas City. He’s already established himself as an impact player in Seattle, making a splash in his Rave Green debut with a brace against the Chicago Fire, and becoming the club’s third-leading scorer of 2026 with his three goals in four games. The good news for you Loons is that the star forward Seattle has already come to depend on has been called up for the international window, playing for Serbia this weekend. The Sounders still aren’t winning, but Joveljić is one of the primary reasons they’re not losing, either, and that reason won’t be in play on Saturday.

A Little Math

Let’s run some numbers, shall we? In the last five seasons — that’s 2021 through 2025 — the absolute lowest point tally to get a team over the play-in line (ninth place) was 40, by Atlanta in 2024. Your Loons are at 29 points with eight games remaining in the season. The Black and Blue would need to win four games to get above that 40-point mark, which is more than half of the games they’ve won all season, and it’s likely they’ll need more than that to earn a qualifying spot. 

In an ideal world, they’d win every single one of their remaining games and shoot up to 53 points. In a realistic one, they probably need at least 12 to 13 points to at least guarantee a spot in the play-in round, whether those points come from a miraculous winning streak or a combination of wins or draws. With five of the remaining eight matches against the West’s top six teams, a win in Seattle this weekend is more critical than ever. But the bottom line is that mathematically, it’s not too late for the squad to pull off a comeback. We just need to start with one big win.