It’s that time of year, folks. From here on out, just about every result is going to have postseason implications. Sure, every point counts the same; a win in February makes the exact same impact as a win in September. But it’s impossible to get your head around the standings until the end of the season is nigh, and it’s way more fun to act like these are the only matches that matter.

I suppose you could argue that in this league, late-season form trumps early success more often than not, but that’s not the purpose of this article. I’m just here to update you on who’s in, who’s out, and who’s getting close to either one. I’ll put a little Loons twist on it as well, just to make you feel at home. I’m so kind, aren’t I?

Get Outta Here

Let’s start on a sadder note — the teams with nothing left to play for. As it stands, only four teams have permission to hang up their boots, and they’re all in the Eastern Conference. Why is that the case, you ask? Well, a top-heavy east has raised the current playoff line seven points higher than the west, with Chicago’s 42 points in ninth place setting the standard for everyone else to chase. The first victims of that high line are as follows:

• CF Montréal
• D.C. United
• Atlanta United
• Toronto FC

While not guaranteed just yet, it’s very likely that the list will grow this weekend, and it might even manage to jump the conference divide in doing so. The action this weekend could very well see the following teams eliminated from contention:

• LA Galaxy
• St. Louis CITY SC
• New England Revolution

The Galaxy and St. Louis are at the mercy of Real Salt Lake and San Jose, as well as their own results. I’ll leave the exact scenarios to someone more qualified, but keep an eye on the Quakes vs. St. Louis match this Saturday, as that match could very well be the straw that breaks two camels’ backs. As for New England, they’re basically going to have to win every game from here on out and hope that both the Fire and the Red Bulls do the opposite. If they fall short at any point, they’re all but guaranteed to be gone.

Keep on Dancing!

That’s enough of that; let’s move on to something a bit more lighthearted. Six teams have already punched their tickets to the postseason, and in this category, the conferences are dead even. In the Western Conference, your Loons join San Diego and Vancouver as the clear frontrunners, with just four points separating first from third in this trio of postseason-bound powerhouses. A similar situation is playing out to the east, with Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Charlotte all jockeying for top spot after securing their playoff berths. Those are the top dogs, right? If only it were that simple.

While most teams in the league have completed 30 matches, there’s a slew of clubs with between 27 and 29 matches played, throwing a serious wrench into what was supposed to be a simple, buttoned-up series of fun articles. Now, I’ve got to tell you who’s been slacking, who might make up ground, and why the heck Miami is still in the mix for the Shield. I’m sorry; I don’t like the rules, and even though I made them, I have to play by them. Here we go.

At the moment, Vancouver has two games in hand on San Diego and MNUFC, meaning that with two wins, they could go from third (52 points) to first (they’d have 58 points if they win their games in hand) in the conference with room to spare. Likewise, Inter Miami has only played 27 games, three less than each of the east’s top four teams. This means that they could go from sixth (49 points) to first (just like Vancouver, they could have as many as 58 points right now) if they manage to cash in on the ground they lost.

That’s all hypothetical and dependent on the teams with games in hand putting together perfect runs, but still, it’s worth being aware of. As far as potential clinching scenarios go, the clubs on deck this weekend are Nashville SC, LAFC, Seattle, and NYCFC, who leapfrogged the Crew after a huge midweek win on Wednesday night.

Now, there’s clearly a lot of soccer left to play, but let’s fantasize and Loon-ify this article a little before we close. Were the season to end today, your Loons would be the second seed in the west, set for a best-of-three series against none other than Austin FC. I don’t know about you, but I like the sound of another crack at El Tree.

Nothing is guaranteed yet — your Loons are still pushing for the top spot, and though the Supporters’ Shield fate isn’t exactly in their hands, they stand poised to pounce if the leaders slip up at all during this final stretch. Don’t worry about keeping up with all of these moving parts on your own, though; that’s what I’m here for. We’ll be back in a week for your next update, and I’m expecting nothing but positive vibes from this next batch of MLS action.