Chicago: It’s a musical, it’s a song, it’s that city with the big shiny bean that’s somehow in a different conference than Minnesota, despite being a mere 5.5 degrees longitude off from Saint Paul. No matter the MLS geographical boundaries, Tuesday is going to be a clash of two great Midwestern cities, and we get to witness it right here at Allianz Field (with fireworks)! Welcome to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal matchup of your dreams.
If you don’t know what the Open Cup is by now, it’s a great time to get into it as the Loons host Chicago Fire FC in a battle for a spot in the semifinals. For the first time since 2015, the quarterfinals field is entirely composed of MLS clubs. It’s not just an interconference match, like the regular-season fixture coming up against Chicago in September. It’s a step closer to some good ol’ silverware for the Loons to start building their trophy cabinet.
Run of Form
Minnesota United FC
Run of Form: W-D-W-L-W
Minnesota’s Open Cup run this season has seen them win both matches by a single-goal margin, with two almost entirely different starting lineups taking on Louisville and St. Louis. But two matches aren’t a whole lot to go off of, and since this is an MLS vs. MLS match, it might be more pertinent to check out the regular-season run of form. Minnesota notched results in three out of four June matchups despite a handful of absences due to international duty, and with Canada and Honduras knocked out of Gold Cup play, everyone’s back in action for the Black and Blue. Last weekend saw an insane combination from Pereyra and Yeboah against the New York Red Bulls, and despite the 90th-minute equalizer that turned it into a draw, the match showcased fine form from a lot of our starters. The Loons are playing well and gaining momentum, and now it’s just a matter of how the roster depth handles this level of schedule congestion.
Chicago Fire FC
Run of Form: L-W-L-L-W
So far in Open Cup play, the Fire have destroyed Detroit City FC 4-0 and beaten New England by a comfortable 2-goal margin. That’s a pretty impressive run, though they’re nowhere near the top of the rankings in regular-season play. (Even though they’re above the playoff line and might just make it for the first time since 2017. Not a bad first season, Mr. Berhalter.) They gave up two matches in June, but both losses came at the hands of two of the best clubs in the league. The Fire play two fewer matches in July than the Loons, and with notably fewer players involved in recent international play, they’re navigating less rotation than Minnesota. Don’t underestimate a team this hungry for a tournament win, especially one under new leadership that’s proven pretty successful over the first half of the season.
Keys to the Match:
Tricky Trio
Who’s fueling the fire for the Fire right now? I’ve got three answers for you. Obviously, the first name out of anyone’s mouth is going to be Hugo Cuypers. He’s tied for third in the race for the Golden Boot with 11 goals scored, boasting the second highest xG in the league at 14.16. Then you have Jonathan Bamba, who’s making waves in the midfield and has already accumulated three goals and seven assists in his first season in the league. But the real rising talent might just be All-Star Philip Zinckernagel, who’s tied with our own Joaquín Pereyra in assists (eight) and has also logged eight goals of his own so far, one of them being the absolutely insane run that gave the Fire a victory over Charlotte on Matchday 21. Between these three guys, Chicago poses a very real attacking threat.
Conversion Challenge
The bulk of Minnesota’s strength is concentrated in the opposite area, with a killer defense that’s inarguably one of the most disciplined backlines in the league right now (and basically all season). The Loons can do set pieces, counters, long throws, and clearances in their sleep, but despite a quick, powerful midfield and some slippery strikers, they struggle to convert in the end. Despite some strides in scoring lately, the Loons have gone scoreless five times so far, which is one more instance than they’d accumulated by same time last year. The only thing holding the Black and Blue back from being absolutely destructive in every third is the ability to finish in the final stretch more consistently than they have so far, and Chicago is a really good team to do this against, because their defense is not that good. Oh, look at that — a perfect segue?
Line of Defense
Chicago’s powerful attack might distract the casual Fire fan from the fact that they’re leaving a lot to be desired in the defensive department. FBref has this handy little defensive action stat that logs “mistakes leading to an opponent’s shot,” and the Fire are fifth in the league here with 18 “errors.” As a statistic, it feels a little subjective to me, but the point is that their defensive system is pretty much just… not ideal. They play a back four, but their center backs are left hanging when attack-minded fullbacks let their offensive instincts take over. The question is whether a new guy like 17-year-old Christopher Cupps can cover all that space in back while Andrew Gutman pushes up to join the attack.
The Fire have logged 34 goals against across 19 matches and have the highest xGA in the East at 33.5, which is not where anyone wants to be. Between that and conceding more penalties than any other club in the league, Chicago’s last line of defense is their weakest link.
Are you seeing a theme here? A tactical matchup that presents the perfect challenge for the Loons’ current position, where they have a chance to boost their conversion ratio against a shoddy defense and score their way to a trophy.
